The easternmost section of the Black Sea regional short-term forecasting system was developed with the participation of Georgian scientists on the basis of mathematical modeling as one of the components of the overall Black Sea diagnosis and forecasting system. The Development of the Black Sea Diagnosis and Operational Forecasting System was carried out from 2003 to 2005 as an EU-ARENA international scientific and technical project and the Black Sea regional forecasting system easternmost sector covered the Georgian coastline and waters.

For five days in July 2005 an international pilot experiment set up forecasting functions which were quasi operational, for the first time in the history of Black Sea Oceanography. The regional forecasting system developed by Georgian researchers for the easternmost part of the Black Sea is one of the components of this forecasting system. Leading scientific centers from all countries limitrophe to the Black Sea (Bulgaria, Turkey, Romania, Russia, Georgia and Ukraine) were involved. The Nodia Institute of Geophysics participated under the coordination of the Marine Hydrophysical Institute of the Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences (Sevastopol). The international experts unanimously assessed the experiment successful, as it confirmed the reliability of the Black Sea forecasting system and the real possibility of its functioning in operational mode.

The program received further funding from the EU ECOOP (2008-2011), and this permitted further improvements and expansion for creating mathematical models of the distribution of anthropogenic admixtures through a grant from the Shota Rustaveli National Science Foundation (2013-2015). The research team included Avtandil Kordzadze, Doctor of Sciences in Physics and Mathematics, Professor, the Head of the Department of Mathematical Modeling of Geophysical Processes in the Sea and Atmosphere at the Institute of Geophysics; and Demuri Demetrashvili, Doctor of Sciences in Physics and Mathematics, Chief Researcher at the Department of Mathematical Modeling of Geophysical Processes in the Sea and Atmosphere at the Institute of Geophysics.

For the first time, a short-term forecasting system was created. At its core is a high-resolution regional model of Black Sea dynamics that differs from models of those developed abroad, in that this methodology takes physical factors into consideration as well as numerical methods for solving differential equations. The eastern section of the Black Sea forecasting area is separated from the open part of the sea by a conditional liquid boundary that partly coincides with the Tuapse Meridian.

The regional forecasting system consists of hydrodynamic and ecological blocks. The regional model of the Black Sea dynamics is the core of the hydrodynamic block, as developed by A. Kordzadze; D. Demetrashvili; components of the ecological block are two – and three-dimensional mathematical models of oil spills and other pollutants in the sea environment. The regional model of Black Sea dynamics is based on a complete system of oceanic hydro-thermodynamic equations, while admixture pollution calculations are based on two – and three-dimensional diffusion equations that use the flow field in the hydrodynamic block. All the data necessary for the regional forecasting system are received daily via Internet from the Marine Hydrophysical Institute (Sevastopol).

The regional forecasting system is not yet the final version and work is underway to improve the system. At this time a regional forecasting system has been developed that allows three-day forecasting, and not only 3-D dynamic fields –currents, temperature and salinity at a spacing of 1km,but also reports oil pollution zones and concentrations in case of accidents. In cases where the sea becomes polluted by oil and other admixtures, this forecasting system will enable scientists to promptly forecast the areas and concentrations of pollution and give recommendations to relevant agencies.

The researchers believe that the regional forecasting system now developed has both important scientific and practical value. The scientific value includes a unique database developed in 2010-2015 that systematically reflects the hydro – and thermodynamic processes occurring in the Georgian sector of the Black Sea and adjacent waters. This adds to our knowledge about hydro – and thermodynamic processes in these waters. Analyses of three-dimensional dynamic fields – flows, temperature and salinity – have shown that the easternmost Black Sea represents dynamically active region, where origin, evolution and dissipation of mesoscale and sub-mesoscale hurricanes constantly take place. The practical value of this research has meant the forecasting system can be used by agencies and individuals as well.

Since the Black Sea regional forecasting system works close to fully operational and gives data for 24h, 48h and 72h forecasts of hydro-physical fields, flow, temperature and salinity are posted online in visual format at the following address: www.ig-geophysics.ge. Any individual or organization interested in the results of forecasting who wishes relevant information in other formats, or more detailed information about forecasting fields, can directly contact the authors.

Research results have been presented at international conferences and in articles on findings published in peer-reviewed journals:

Kordzadze A. A., Demetrashvili D. I. Operational forecast of hydrophysical fields in the Georgian Black Sea coastal zone within the ECOOP. Ocean Science, 2011, 7, pp.793-803.
Kordzadze A., Demetrashvili D. Coastal forecasting system for the easternmost part of the Black Sea. Turkish Journal of fisheries and aquatic sciences. 2012, vol.12, pp. 471-477, www.trjfas.org.
Kordzadze A., Demetrashvili D. Short-term forecasting of hydrophysical fields in the easternmost Black Sea; Izvetia of Russian Academy of Sciences, Physics of Atmosphere and Ocean, 2013, No 6, pp. 733-745.